Publications

Articles

“The Real Kelly Criterion”, September 2017 for Pinnacle. Presents the generalized form of the Kelly Criterion (as opposed to the simplified ‘edge/odds’ form most commonly used by bettors). Applications to simultaneous bets and optimal hedging strategies.

“Toward a Theory of Everything”, July 2019 for Pinnacle. Presents a unified framework to understand fractional Kelly, regression to market and closing line value through the lens of parameter uncertainty and Bayesian updating. Part 1 Part 2

“Parameter Uncertainty and Meta-Probabilities in NFL Line Movement”, September 2019 for Pinnacle. Presents the concept of “meta-probabilities” (probabilities of probabilities! fun!) with applications to how the market “learns” from week 1 results in its pricing of week 2 lines.

Podcasts

“Deep Dive with Andy & Whale”, May 2019

“Pinnacle Podcast”, August 2019 Transcript

“Pinnacle Profit from Perspective”, October 2019

“The Business of Betting”, October 2019

“Chilling With Charlie”, February 2020

“Deep Dive with Andy & Whale”, March 2020

“Happy Hour with Captain Jack”, July 2020

“Gambling With An Edge”, October 2020. Part 1 Part 2

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