Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started

Publications

Articles

“The Real Kelly Criterion”, September 2017 for Pinnacle. Presents the generalized form of the Kelly Criterion (as opposed to the simplified ‘edge/odds’ form most commonly used by bettors). Applications to simultaneous bets and optimal hedging strategies.

“Toward a Theory of Everything”, July 2019 for Pinnacle. Presents a unified framework to understand fractional Kelly, regression to market and closing line value through the lens of parameter uncertainty and Bayesian updating. Part 1 Part 2

“Parameter Uncertainty and Meta-Probabilities in NFL Line Movement”, September 2019 for Pinnacle. Presents the concept of “meta-probabilities” (probabilities of probabilities! fun!) with applications to how the market “learns” from week 1 results in its pricing of week 2 lines.

“Making Good Bets”, April 2022 for Betstamp. A beginner’s guide to line shopping and bonuses.

Podcasts

“Deep Dive with Andy & Whale”, May 2019

“Pinnacle Podcast”, August 2019 Transcript

“Pinnacle Profit from Perspective”, October 2019

“The Business of Betting”, October 2019

“Chilling With Charlie”, February 2020

“Deep Dive with Andy & Whale”, March 2020

“Gambling With An Edge”, October 2020. Part 1 Part 2

“Circles Off”, October 2021

“Always Betting”, April 2022

Videos

“Happy Hour with Captain Jack”, July 2020

“The Analytics.b(rack)et Live Show”, March 2022

Lectures

Bayesian Sports Betting, Lesson 1: “What is Small Data?”

Advertisement