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NFL Season Wins 2022: Seeking Alpha

My original NFL Season Wins article was my most-viewed post of 2020 and one that I’ve been asked quite a few times to update. The most obvious change is that the season is now 17 games long instead of 16, but that’s a trivial update and you, my loyal readers, deserve something more. Back inContinue reading “NFL Season Wins 2022: Seeking Alpha”


Sharp Books, Soft Books: Inside the Sportsbook Ecosystem

Today I’m going to tackle a topic that is somewhat controversial. Myths, misconceptions and disinformation are everywhere, there is passionate debate from all directions, and there is a lot of complex stuff going on. Let’s talk about the different ways that a centralized* sportsbook can be run; specifically, how they set their odds and howContinue reading “Sharp Books, Soft Books: Inside the Sportsbook Ecosystem”

An Announcement

Professor Harry Crane is one of the people I respect the most within our little community of sports betting enthusiasts. He has an ability to blend the technical rigor of an academic with the common sense of a real-world practitioner, and he has been nothing but honest and trustworthy in my dealings with him. SoContinue reading “An Announcement”

How Winners Win: A Framework for Breaking Down Expected Value

Diversity is one of the most important keys to good scientific inquiry. I’m not talking about diversity of race, gender, sexual orientation, etc. – those are fine but they’re superficial. I’m talking about intellectual diversity – different ways of thinking about things and different ways of doing things. Gambling Twitter is a great source ofContinue reading “How Winners Win: A Framework for Breaking Down Expected Value”


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