Patrick Mahomes and the Anatomy of a Correlated Parlay

For Torontonians like myself, Buffalo NY is our adopted US hometown. Our cable TV providers carry the Buffalo affiliates of all the US networks. Pre-pandemic we would regularly make the 90 minute drive past Niagara Falls and over the border to shop at the American stores and eat at the American restaurants that haven’t yetContinue reading “Patrick Mahomes and the Anatomy of a Correlated Parlay”

Python, My New Year’s Resolution?

Yes, it’s that time of year where we look back on what we’ve accomplished and look forward to the future. Global pandemic aside, it’s been a pretty cool year for Plus EV Analytics. I started my own blog, and I got to appear on some great podcasts including my friends at the Deep Dive, CaptainContinue reading “Python, My New Year’s Resolution?”

Searching For Jeffrey Csima: Parimutuel Pick’em Pools

The 1993 film “Searching For Bobby Fischer” is about, according to Wikipedia, parents who “hire a strict instructor who aims to teach the boy to be as aggressive as chess legend Bobby Fischer. The title of the film is a metaphor about the character’s quest to adopt the ideal of Fischer and his determination to winContinue reading “Searching For Jeffrey Csima: Parimutuel Pick’em Pools”

The Billion Dollar Idea

Close your eyes with me and imagine… Imagine a hypothetical material, call it plusevium. Plusevium is an unwanted byproduct of every industrial and economic process in the world; in fact, of life itself. This byproduct is so undesirable that those who produce it will gladly pay to have it removed and destroyed. Now, imagine thatContinue reading “The Billion Dollar Idea”

Chopped and Skewed: The Mathematics of Points Betting

NOTE: I have no affiliation with any of the companies or products mentioned, and I do not endorse any specific provider or service. An Australian bookmaker called PointsBet has been in the news quite often recently. They expanded into Illinois, and they signed marketing deals with NBC Sports and the PGA Tour. Normally this isContinue reading “Chopped and Skewed: The Mathematics of Points Betting”

NFL Season Win Totals: Two Easy Ways (And One Fun Way) to Find +EV Bets

NOTE: Lines move in real time, so the exact numbers I’m using in this article may be out of date by the time you read it. The general strategies should hold up regardless. I first became interested in NFL season win total betting a year ago when I listened to this podcast with Drew, AndyContinue reading “NFL Season Win Totals: Two Easy Ways (And One Fun Way) to Find +EV Bets”

Horse Racing: Sport of Kings, Sport of Quants

June 8, 2012 Shakopee, Minnesota It was a regular Friday evening card at Canterbury Park, one of America’s less prestigious racetracks. My syndicate placed a couple hundred dollars in bets. The horse we liked best – ironically named “All Bets Are Off” – came in second, and the horse we liked second best – unironicallyContinue reading “Horse Racing: Sport of Kings, Sport of Quants”

To The Extreme: MLB Season Props

“To the extreme, I rock a mic like a vandalLight up a stage and wax a chump like a candle” – Vanilla Ice “Any player scores 49+ runs?” “Any player has 77+ hits?” “Any player hits 20+ home runs?” How do we price these “any player” props, adjusting for the fact that this year’s MLBContinue reading “To The Extreme: MLB Season Props”

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