Don’t just win the game, beat the game!
EV, or “Expected Value”, is the statistical average of a random value. Over a long enough period of time, the good luck and the bad luck even out and the EV is what’s left over. When a gambler’s EV is negative, it is known as the “house advantage” or “house edge” or “vig”, and it’s what allows casinos and sports books to make a dependable profit when totaled over thousands or millions of bets.
+EV stands for “Positive Expected Value”. When a gambler has +EV, it means that the odds are in his/her favour. Does it guarantee a win on a single bet? No…but over the long run, over many repeated bets, someone with +EV is certain to come out ahead in total.
+EV is the holy grail for gamblers; it’s what separates winners from losers. On any given day, on any given bet, anyone could win and anyone could lose. But to have +EV is to truly “beat” a game, to hold a mathematical advantage that holds up over the long run when the good and bad short-term variance has washed away.
Finding +EV, getting the odds in my favour through the use of analytics, is my mission in life.
I am passionate about sports, mathematics and gambling.
I have a degree in Actuarial Science and Statistics from the University of Waterloo. I finished university at the start of the poker boom, and it proved to be a profitable hobby. At one point in 2006 I had a 27% return on investment through 500 $100 single table tournaments at PokerStars, ranked #1 in the world on the Sharkscope leaderboard.
When the poker money dried up, I turned my attention to sports and casino games. With the ability to find +EV spots but neither the risk tolerance nor the access to play for high stakes, I began building a network in the gambling space and finding partnerships and consulting arrangements.
In the past, I have worked with:
- Several groups of high-volume advantage players in the Canadian sports lottery systems
- A North American horse racing syndicate that used my model to place $100+ million in bets over a period of several years, returning a 7-figure profit
- Some of the best professional casino advantage players in Las Vegas and around the world
My areas of expertise include:
- Optimal bet sizing using the Kelly Criterion
- Statistical modeling using probability distributions
- Epistemology, epistemic uncertainty and Bayesian inference
- Model error, risk theory, fragility and antifragility
In my day job, I am an actuary for a Canadian insurance company. I live in the Toronto, Canada area with my wonderful wife and two amazing children.
You can find my articles and podcast appearances here.
I am always interested in new opportunities, please reach out to me on Twitter @PlusEVAnalytics!