Plus EV Analytics
Applying statistical and actuarial methods to the analysis of gambling propositions
Latest from the Blog
Well, we’re 14 months into this pandemic and while a return to full-attendance live events is on the horizon in some parts of the world, most of North America is still somewhere between limited attendance and no fans, and here in Toronto I can’t even go to the damn golf course let alone a crowdedContinue reading “Next Generation Ticket Pricing”
In Part 4, we took our simple ballast model and re-derived it as a Bayesian model complete with priors, posteriors, hyperparameters, loglikelihoods…the whole shebang. We ended with an interpretation of the prior alpha parameter as a measure of both the signal to noise ratio in the emerging data and the quality of our prior. OfContinue reading “Building a Bayesian Model: Part 5”
We ended Part 3 with the Shyamalan-eque twist that the simple ballast model we’ve been building has been a Bayesian model all along. Time to take a step back and look at the same model through a Bayesian lens. I mentioned way back in Part 1 that we’d be gradually building this thing up, andContinue reading “Building a Bayesian Model: Part 4”
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