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Applying statistical and actuarial methods to the analysis of gambling propositions

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Building a Bayesian Model: Part 5

In Part 4, we took our simple ballast model and re-derived it as a Bayesian model complete with priors, posteriors, hyperparameters, loglikelihoods…the whole shebang. We ended with an interpretation of the prior alpha parameter as a measure of both the signal to noise ratio in the emerging data and the quality of our prior. OfContinue reading “Building a Bayesian Model: Part 5”

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