Plus EV Analytics
Applying statistical and actuarial methods to the analysis of gambling propositions
Latest from the Blog
Next Generation Ticket Pricing
Well, we’re 14 months into this pandemic and while a return to full-attendance live events is on the horizon in some parts of the world, most of North America is still somewhere between limited attendance and no fans, and here in Toronto I can’t even go to the damn golf course let alone a crowdedContinue reading “Next Generation Ticket Pricing”
Building a Bayesian Model: Part 5
In Part 4, we took our simple ballast model and re-derived it as a Bayesian model complete with priors, posteriors, hyperparameters, loglikelihoods…the whole shebang. We ended with an interpretation of the prior alpha parameter as a measure of both the signal to noise ratio in the emerging data and the quality of our prior. OfContinue reading “Building a Bayesian Model: Part 5”
Building a Bayesian Model: Part 4
We ended Part 3 with the Shyamalan-eque twist that the simple ballast model we’ve been building has been a Bayesian model all along. Time to take a step back and look at the same model through a Bayesian lens. I mentioned way back in Part 1 that we’d be gradually building this thing up, andContinue reading “Building a Bayesian Model: Part 4”
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