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Applying statistical and actuarial methods to the analysis of gambling propositions

Latest from the Blog

Me v. Caesars

First, the background for those who haven’t been following along. So, I am suing Caesars in Ontario Small Claims Court. I’ve been asked the question, “why are you doing all this”? It’s a lot of time spent, the money involved is relatively insignificant, and I’ve since been completely banned from betting at Caesars…which I admit…

NFL Season Wins 2022: Seeking Alpha

My original NFL Season Wins article was my most-viewed post of 2020 and one that I’ve been asked quite a few times to update. The most obvious change is that the season is now 17 games long instead of 16, but that’s a trivial update and you, my loyal readers, deserve something more. Back in…

Sharp Books, Soft Books: Inside the Sportsbook Ecosystem

Today I’m going to tackle a topic that is somewhat controversial. Myths, misconceptions and disinformation are everywhere, there is passionate debate from all directions, and there is a lot of complex stuff going on. Let’s talk about the different ways that a centralized* sportsbook can be run; specifically, how they set their odds and how…

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